January 2026 Market Commentary

When looking at the performance of equities at the broader index level, it would be fair to say that January continued the upward trend of the past three years.  After all, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 indices were all up on the month, just as they were in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025. 

But a closer look at equity returns by sector in the month tells a far different and more volatile story.  And as January has given way to February, the selloff in certain sectors has begun to turn violent, with several areas of the market coming under significant pressure.  

One area of weakness has been software. After a historic decade-long run, software-as-a-service stocks already came under pressure in late 2025 and have remained soft through the start of the year. Investors are increasingly debating whether AI will disrupt traditional business models and compress pricing power. As with many market transitions, there are likely to be both winners and losers, but the market is currently in a “sell now, ask questions later” stance when it comes to software. 

Consumer finance also drew attention. Credit card companies and banks were in focus after President Trump backed a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates as part of a broader effort to ease household financial burdens. Housing affordability was another priority, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin purchases of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to lower mortgage rates. 

After a record 2025, gold posted another strong month in January, followed by sharp volatility into early February. Silver also rallied meaningfully, while other commodities such as copper, natural gas, and oil advanced as investors revisited inflation hedges and dollar-related themes.  

Monetary policy was also in focus. The FOMC held rates steady at its January meeting, and shortly thereafter Trump announced his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh. He is widely viewed as potentially more hawkish and less tolerant of persistent inflation, putting the 2026 policy path more firmly back in focus, and has raised questions about reforming the Fed and its balance sheet. 

Overall, it has been a busy start to the year. After three consecutive years of double-digit returns, investors are again asking whether markets can sustain the momentum. At SAM we position our portfolios for the long term. While market narratives will come and go, our principals of informed active management will persist. SAM portfolio performance in the start of year has been exemplary of this disciplined approach. As many individual stocks posted double digit losses, and major indexes have come under pressure, SAM strategies are holding up well. 

If you’re wondering how our portfolio strategies may help you navigate today’s volatility, we welcome you to connect with our team at (646) 854-2995.

Written by SAM’s Invest Team on 2/5/2026